Sorry for the lack of posts recently - been quite busy. Here are a few articles I think are worth reading:
- The Baseline Scenario writes about monetary policy, taking a look at hawks vs. doves in the Fed. I never quite thought of hawks or doves in monetary policy, but it's a neat take.
Hawks also like to talk a lot about “credibility,” which means a reputation for being willing to fight inflation. People use the word credibility in this context because the conventional wisdom used to be that national governments would not be willing to take tough steps (raising interest rates) against inflation because that would cost jobs, and hence votes in the next election. So central banks had to prove that they were willing to raise interest rates and put people out of work, even though that might be politically unpopular. Now that our Fed governors and bank presidents are accountable to just about no one, beating on their chests and proclaiming how willing they are to be tough in the face of the political winds rings a little hollow to me — especially in a “middle-class” country that considers inflation to be a greater evil than unemployment. Arguably, the situation has reversed; it has become so accepted that the primary job of a central bank is to fight inflation, despite the Fed’s dual mandate (to both fight inflation and promote stable economic growth), that fighting inflation has become the politically safe thing to do.
- This is interesting, and for Americans, potentially alarming: China, Russia, Japan, France, and some Middle Eastern countries are planning to "end dollar dealings for oil." There's been quite a bit of noise over the past months about shifting away from the dollar as the main international currency, but (at least in articles I read, which I must note tend to be written by Americans) such talk has been largely dismissed. Apparently, we shouldn't dismiss so easily. The dollar is already weak in value, and such a move only further hurts its reputation. If this is actually going to happen, it will increase tension between China and America. It is also interesting that Japan, who has been a pretty close trade partner and ally since WWII, is part of this non-dollar alliance.
- A profile of Larry Summers and his team.
- Mish arguing that deflation is no longer a looming threat, it is here. Furthermore, he argues that it's a good thing! Take a look:
Deflation is not a threat because deflation is here by any practical measurement. Deflation is also here by impractical measurements such as falling prices. See Humpty Dumpty On Inflation and Daniel Amerman vs. Mish: Reflections on the Great Inflation/Deflation Debate for a further discussion of a practical definition of deflation, a contraction of money supply and credit marked to market, not falling prices.
Moreover, deflation is not a threat in a second sense. Deflation is needed to purge the excesses of the last credit cycle. Attempts to defeat deflation by force will only prolong the agony while accumulating government debt, just as happened in Japan's two lost decades.
Finally, deflation is not a threat in a third sense. Falling prices are a natural state of affairs because of rising productivity over time.
It's like what Lenin said... you look for the person who will benefit, and, uh.
ReplyDeleteI saw this line right next to where this blog title appears. I never noticed this line before. You seem like a fan of Lenin ;-)
Recent addition, a quote from one of my favorite movies, The Big Lebowski.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure about Lenin, but the quote is pretty on point. Follow the money.