Thursday, October 22, 2009

This Isn't Needed Regulation

I'm appalled by what the government is up to right now.
In case you haven't heard, the Pay Czar, Kenneth Feinberg, just started instituting pay cuts at Wall St. firms that used TARP money:

Mr. Feinberg, the Treasury Department's special master for compensation, will lower total compensation for 175 employees at seven firms including AIG, Citigroup, Bank of America and GM, by an average of 50%, people familiar with the matter said. He will also demand a series of corporate-governance changes at the firms, including splitting the positions of chairman and chief executive officer; requiring boards of directors to create a committee to assess risk, and eliminating staggered boards.

Some of that actually sounds not so bad, such as splitting the positions of chairman and CEO. However, this is not the way to go about fixing anything! What is Feinberg trying to accomplish? Here's the best I've found:

Summers said Feinberg's rulings -- which are expected to be publicly released in the coming days -- will ensure taxpayers' interests come before those of shareholders and incumbent management at the beleaguered firms.

Let's do a quick history. First of all, lest we forget, the government forced these companies into accepting bailout money. Some argue that hey, if you take public money, you have to be prepared for public oversight ... but they didn't have a choice! Beyond that, it's not as if there were any particular requirements associated with the TARP money. For example, one way to look out for taxpayers might have been to get the banks taking TARP money to lend more, during a time when credit was/is tight. Did that happen? No. "Geithner did not require the Big Banks to loan money for commercial loans as a prerequisite for additional borrowings from the Fed."
And now Obama & Co. start trying to trim their pay? What are they accomplishing?? All that I'm seeing here is this: Dear Big Banks, if you get in trouble, we'll give you tons of money. In fact, we might even force it down your throats, but at least no matter how bad you screw up you know you won't go under. Then we'll let you do whatever you want with that money and achieve mind-blowing profits during a recession, which will naturally lead to fantastic compensation and plenty of public outrage. And since we used to work on/with Wall Street, we could basically predict all this would happen. And it's kinda messed up that we used to work with you and now we're giving you more-or-less free public money, but hey, that's what friends are for! But look, we'll have to pretend to be totally bewildered and fake some anger at you so the public doesn't tar-and-feather us.
Honestly, as far as I can tell, that's more or less the story so far. Ugh. Instead of focusing on useful policies that might prevent future issues (such as reinstatement of the Glass-Steagall Act, or something similar, which is sadly looking like it won't happen), they do worthless stuff that won't even really have a lasting impact:

Pay is the wrong way to tackle this problem. It’s a lazy, crowd-appeasing, intellectually dishonest approach. The out of line pay is a symptom, and any attempt to treat symptoms as causes is likely to be ineffective, more likely dysfunctional.
...
Now why is trying to control this through pay not such a hot idea? First, one hundred years of performance appraisal systems have proven them to be abject failures (aa 1992 paper by
Patrick D. Larkey and Jonathan P. Caulkin, “All Above Average and Other Unintended
Consequences of Performance Appraisal Systems,” did a brilliant job of dissecting why, but it was too heretical to get published. You can read a few key points here in the section “The Illusion of Meritocracy”). Second, comp systems are supposed to solve what is called a principal-agent problem. You the person hiring someone to work on your behalf wants to make sure they are operating in accordance with YOUR best interests in mind, not theirs.
But what did we learn from 20 years of executive rewards schemes that had lots of equity incentives that would supposedly align the interest of top brass with that of shareholders. We got instead an explosion of CEO pay and companies that are so fixated on quarterly earnings that they are reluctant to invest in growth. How did that come to pass?
BECAUSE THE AGENTS AND NOT THE PRINCIPALS DESIGNED THE PAY SCHEMES!  The foxes were running the hen house. Oh, sure, we had some fig leaves, it was the HR department that hired the compensation consultant, and the board (nominated by the incumbent management) that signed off on it, but it is pretty clear that a comp consultant that did not deliver a CEO-wallet-fattening plan was unlikely to get much repeat business.
And is anything going to be materially different? No. The conventional wisdom is that having employees take a high level of pay as equity is a magic solution, conveniently forgetting that Bear and Lehman both featured very high levels of shareholding among its top management and employees. Feinberg is only intervening in outliers, to collect a few scalps. He is in a very difficult position and is trying to make the best of it.
The financial services industry now has an unimaginably rich deal: privatized gains and socialized losses, and with tons of leverage too, which amps up the apparent profits and hence the pay levels these looters can claim they deserve. The way to attack this problem is to constrain the level of risk assumption. That in turn requires understanding the products and the markets, something the authorities have completely abdicated. With so much “talent” looking for jobs, now would be the perfect time to invest in catching up.

Sorry for the angry, poorly-written rant. And please keep in mind, I'm not exactly trying to defend banks here. In fact, I think I've been quite open on this blog about how immoral they've been and how dangerous they are to our country as they're currently constructed. The point here is, nothing useful is being done to correct this! All this Pay Czar junk is just political maneuvering. Real reform is not happening.

9 comments:

  1. I know you have been critical of banks in the past and it was refreshing to see you agree with my insistence that government forced many of the banks to accept public money just to show solidarity. At last you seem to be seeing how things work in Washington and the Wall Street.

    And here is a thought for the day:

    Given a choice between market sorting things out and government sorting things out for us my money will be bet on the market and not the government. All that the government can do is a dog and pony show called pay czar reducing pay for 175 executives.

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  2. I've always known "how things work", but that doesn't excuse either party from being castigated. I do try to spend a fair bit of space in this blog on criticizing a lack of reform, just as I've spent time criticizing banks for short-sighted greed.

    Also, please define "sorting things out" in your thought above.

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  3. Banks are in the business of making money. Plain and simple. Banks are not in the business of pontificating about what is the unemployment rate right now. Unemployment rate right now affects banks and they take it as a factor in fine-tuning their strategy about whom to target for loans etc. But all they care is how/if they can make profits out of existing situations. And if they make money the legal what's wrong in that? Has anyone proven any illegal things going on in banks. Example: Raj of Galleon should be charged to the maximum for insider trading. But if he was not doing insider trading and made billions whats wrong with that? Its not banks' responsibility to see if people are loosing jobs. Also, its meaningless to harp about excessive bonuses at banks. Its purely between bank shareholders and the executives to sort those out. Why should government meddle into all that? Again government should meddle if anything illegal happened, not purely because someone became ultra rich.

    As for the "sorting things out":

    it means bring things back to normal. And that is where markets would much better job than hypocritical responses from government. If companies are left to themselves (as against forcing them to accept bailout money) the markets would bring normalcy. Government action always brings in unintended consequences, which end up proving more harmful.

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  4. On your first paragraph, I agree. Nothing wrong with a bank making money legally.

    On your second point, and as a follow up to the first, the problem is the structure. Normal has proven to be not good! Normal over the past 20-30 years has led to boom-and-bust cycles over and over, and this is not healthy. Such turmoil is absolutely not the kind of normal I'd prefer. This is where the market would be ineffective, because it would revert to the 'normal' incentivized by our current regulatory and economic structures. This is where government DOES need to meddle, because only government has the ability to change how our economy works to promote safer, steadier growth with better opportunities across the board rather than for a greedy powerful few.

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  5. Is Wall Street really making money or is it a mirage and deceptive accounting? They will take bonuses even though the so-called earnings may be fictitious.

    http://www.rgemonitor.com/financemarkets-monitor/257853/why_would_anyone_believe_bank_earnings_yet



    Why Would Anyone Believe Bank Earnings Yet?

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    Joseph Mason | Oct 20, 2009
    Earnings season is in full swing, with Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Banc of America, and JP Morgan out last week and more on the way. The problem is, there is still so much noise left over from the crisis and the myriad government bailout programs that it is difficult to disentangle financial fundamentals from hype.

    ...

    Goldman, for instance, seems to have healthy financials – including a Texas ratio of 76b/890b=8.54% – but their regulatory aggression adjustment factor is huge. While Goldman paid back their TARP capital, a substantial portion of their operations now revolve around broker-dealer relationships with the government that are inextricably buried in various portions of their financials. The principal risk, therefore, is that when those government programs are scaled back in recovery Goldman may not be able to replace them with similarly lucrative operations. Furthermore, while ex-Goldman alums continue to be appointed to high-level government positions in order to defend their market in those relationships, current policy backdraft from executive compensation limits and continued government connections could have dire consequences for the firm.

    ...



    JP Morgan has a worse ratio than Goldman – 165b/2,175b=7.59% – but ostensibly only because of digestive problems with Bear Stearns. That said, the firm bought regulatory goodwill with the Bear acquisition and has a reasonable footprint in broker-dealer relationships with ongoing government programs. Overall, in my opinion, Dimon has steered a good path toward recognition and moving beyond losses, setting the stage for growth. Political risks are not as large as Goldman because JP Morgan is not as aggressive in the political space, making me more comfortable with the risk.

    ...

    In summary, we are far from out of the woods yet. Moreover, the principal risks now are the failure or removal of government programs and high probability of public backlash to the private-public partnership, where – unlike the traditional public-private partnership – the relationship is driven more by private interests than public. While the public bailout and market support programs may have been beneficial in the heat of last fall, their value is dubious at best now and they create substantially lumpy policy risk that affects principal banks’ bottom lines. Hence, why would anyone believe bank earnings yet, without substantial adjustment factors for continued economic risks as well as heightened political risks that still play a large role in idiosyncratic firm performance?

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  6. And our elected reps are being compromised:

    http://www.rgemonitor.com/financemarkets-monitor/257868/why_wall_street_reform_is_stuck_in_reverse

    Why Wall Street Reform is Stuck in Reverse

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    Robert Reich | Oct 23, 2009
    At a conference in London, a Goldman Sachs international adviser, Brian Griffiths, praised inequality. As his company was putting aside $16.7 billion for compensation and benefits in the first nine months of 2009, up 46 percent from a year earlier, Griffiths told us not to worry. “We have to tolerate the inequality as a way to achieve greater prosperity and opportunity for all,” he said.

    ...
    Second, the banks keep paying off Congress. The big guns on Wall Street increased their political donations last month after increasing their lobbying muscle. Morgan Stanley's Political Action Committee donated $110,000 in September, for example, of which Democrats got $43,000.
    ...
    That's why the President went to Wall Street to raise money Tuesday night, gleaning about $2 million for the effort. He politely asked the crowd to cooperate with reform -- “If there are members of the financial industry in the audience today, I would ask that you join us in passing necessary reforms" -- but those were hardly fighting words. It's hard to fight people you're trying to squeeze money out of.

    ...

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  7. Are these financiers as smart as they are cracked up to be or are they close to the practitioners of witch craft?!

    http://www.rgemonitor.com/financemarkets-monitor/257871/why_do_bankers_make_so_much_money
    ...

    Do the banks operate in a competitive market?
    ....
    One way is through creating inefficiencies to keep competitive forces at bay. Banks can do this, for example, by constructing informational asymmetries between themselves and their clients. This gets into those pages of small print that you see in various investment and loan contracts. What we might call gotcha clauses and what the banks call revenue enhancers. And it also gets into the use of complex derivatives and other “innovative products” that are hard for the clients to understand, much less price.
    ...
    I think this level of compensation, and the notion of talent behind it, is the result of the inherent uncertainty in the financial enterprise, one that makes it very difficult to assess talent. Indeed, I think the invocations of talent for money producers in finance are akin to those that, in times past, were set aside for the mystical powers of saints and witches.

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  8. I respond to the two line statements made in the last 3 comments. (The remaining things in the comments were articles from somewhere else)

    Comment 1 by Pramod:
    Are these financiers as smart as they are cracked up to be or are they close to the practitioners of witch craft?!

    Response:
    I would love to be a practitioner of such a witchcraft. I mean I am not smart and still can make oodles of money. Whats wrong with that, if I am making these oodles the legal way. I would love to be called stupid/insane or any other choice words and still make billions the legal way. If I was in that position I would care a fig about people who do "they are not smart" talk.

    Comment 2 by Pramod:
    Is Wall Street really making money or is it a mirage and deceptive accounting? They will take bonuses even though the so-called earnings may be fictitious.

    Response:
    Honestly its none of your business unless you are a shareholder of GS (GS used as a substitute for Wall Street as most anger these days seem to be against GS). If GS is making illusory money and the execs take bonuses why does it irritate you unless you are a shareholder. Its between the GS execs and their shareholders to figure out if the profits are illusory or not. And even if they are illusory its shareholders' problem not yours.

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  9. I realize my comments are really late! Did anyone actually read the Judicial Watch documents? I scanned through them and frankly they prove nothing. I think Judicial Watch is counting on people taking their "conservative, non-partisan" (?!) word and not actually reading the 3 documents that *they* have assembled! If I were investigating this I would subpoena the bank CEOs emails as well. Judicial Watch wants government transparency. How about some corporate transparency for a change? How about an FOIA for corporations?!
    I agree that mere pay cuts are political maneuvering and won't lead to long term reform. But I'll take pay cuts ... we are all shareholders in these banks now.
    And in response to "Wanna" who apparently cannot differentiate between the words "legal" and "right" or "just" - please pick up a dictionary and grow an ethical brain cell!
    And also pick up a copy of Mandelbrot's book "The Misbehavior of Markets".

    ReplyDelete