Friday, December 11, 2009

Reading

  • Krugman made a post recently about how many jobs we need and a promotes a plan to do so:

    The most specific, persuasive case I’ve seen for more Fed action comes from Joseph Gagnon, a former Fed staffer now at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Basing his analysis on the prior work of none other than Mr. Bernanke himself, in his previous incarnation as an economic researcher, Mr. Gagnon urges the Fed to expand credit by buying a further $2 trillion in assets. Such a program could do a lot to promote faster growth, while having hardly any downside.
    When I read this piece, I was a little struck by how casually he used the $2 trillion number. That's a lot of money, and a lot of debt. Thankfully, The Mess That Greenspan Made agrees:

    Hardly any downside, that is, unless we're in the middle of a long deferred, fundamental change for the U.S. economy in which the credit expansion seen at all levels over the last few decades - government, corporate, and personal - can no longer produce growth.

  • Mish Shedlock points out that the bond market (usually worth keeping an eye on) is starting to worry about our deficit:

    The so-called yield curve touched 372 basis points, the most in at least 29 years, as the bonds drew a yield of 4.52 percent. The so-called yield curve has widened from 191 basis points at the end of 2008, with the Fed anchoring its target rate at a record-low range of zero to 0.25 percent and the Treasury extending the average maturity of U.S. debt.
    ...
    “The market is continuing to worry about the massive amount of Treasury issuance that’s going to hit the market well into next year,” said Ian Lyngen, senior government bond strategist at CRT Capital Group LLC in Stamford, Connecticut.
  • JP Morgan is apparently not concerned about anything actually being done with regards to the "too big to fail" issue. No surprise.

    Overall, we are left with a big bank that is getting bigger.  It has been (relatively) well run by Mr. Dimon, but there are no assurances for the future.  Given that the “Resolution Authority” is at this point a mythical beast – with no potential effect on the problem of “Too Big To Fail” – we should worry a great deal.
    We could set a hard size cap on banks like JPMorgan Chase (e.g., on assets relative to GDP), which could force them to find ways to spin-off businesses – and return to the much smaller and more manageable size of the early 1990s.  There is no evidence this would be disruptive or cause any economic difficulties.  But, for political reasons, this won’t happen any time soon – the size and power of banks like JPMorgan is put to good use on Capitol Hill.
  • However, Goldman makes a change to its bonus structure. I wonder if this will be beneficial. It's not in line with Dr. Mintzberg's idea of getting rid of bonuses altogether (as the Goldman strategy still presumes stock price is a good measure of corporate performance), but it does feel like a small step in the right direction:

    With a resurgent Goldman set to award billions of dollars in bonuses — a trove that could rival the record payouts of the bubble years — the bank said that its 30 most-senior executives would be paid in the form of a special stock, rather than in cash.

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